We publish our misses too.
Every brief ClearPath issues is evaluated against the ticker’s actual price movement on a 7d / 30d / 90d / 365d schedule. The stats below are aggregate across all beta users — no userId, no individual briefs, just the honest win / loss / flat distribution.
Priming.
ClearPath is in private beta. The first 30-day outcomes resolve on a rolling basis — this page will publish real hit-rate and calibration stats as soon as the first window closes. 19 briefs issued in the last 30 days, none yet at the 30-day outcome mark.
When it goes live, this page will show: hit rate by BUY / HOLD / SELL; whether HIGH-confidence calls outperform LOW; and the raw win / loss / flat distribution. Misses published, same as wins.
How we score outcomes.
1. Windows
Every brief is evaluated on four windows: 7 days, 30 days, 90 days, and 365 days. The 30-day column is what we highlight here — it’s the shortest window that survives single-session noise.
2. Win / loss / flat
A BUY wins if the ticker closes higher than the price at the time of the brief, by more than the sector benchmark’s move over the same window. SELL is the mirror. HOLD wins when the ticker stays within a narrow band — we reward correct inaction. Flat is an outcome inside the neutral zone.
3. Confidence calibration
Every brief carries HIGH / MEDIUM / LOW confidence. If the three-lens consensus is unanimous, we keep the confidence the supervisor assigns. Split decisions get downgraded. A well-calibrated system shows HIGH outperforming LOW over enough evaluated briefs — if ours doesn’t, the chart above makes that visible.
4. Aggregate only
All stats are summed across every beta user’s evaluated briefs. We never publish individual briefs, tickers, or user identifiers here. The underlying warehouse tables are ticker-keyed and hold no userId — that privacy constraint is enforced at the schema level.
5. Refresh cadence
Outcomes resolve via a nightly cron job. This page re-queries the aggregates every six hours. Stats are a snapshot of that most-recent window.
See a live brief.
Request access to the private beta and run a three-lens analysis on any US equity. Every claim traces to its source.
Past outcomes are informational only. Not a guarantee of future performance. Not investment advice.